As much as Portsmouth fans don’t want to admit it, returning to the Championship for the first time in 12 years is firmly in reach.
For many, it’s a reality that cannot be contemplated until John Mousinho, Sean Ragget, and the rest of the squad hold the League One trophy on Southsea Common.
The Blues’ tendency to fall at the final hurdle gives fans good reason to be coy over their automatic promotion chances, regardless of league position.
The 2018/19 season lives long in the memory; Pompey were a mistimed Viv Solomon-Otabor run away from ending their League One limbo.
This season – and say it quietly – things are starting to fall in place.
During the season, Bolton Wanderers and Derby County have been Pompey’s main adversaries.
And, up until last night, the two clubs were within touching distance of Mousinho’s men. However, the Rams’ loss to Charlton and Wigan’s derby to win over Bolton means there’s a seven-point gap to third place; considering Pompey have only lost four games all season, that can be viewed as a ‘nice’ cushion.
The Blues currently sit on 73 points after 35 games, three more than last season’s total after 46 matches.
So, with 11 games left, how many points are required to secure a return to the second tier?
15 points could get Portsmouth promoted
Looking at recent League One seasons could provide the Fratton faithful with encouragement.
Over the past five years, there have been a range of points tallies required to secure second place. Barnsley edged Pompey in 2019 with a total of 91, although 89 would have been enough for Daniel Stendel’s men to snatch the second automatic spot.
During the COVID-19-impacted 2019/20 season, Rotherham sealed promotion with 1.75 points per game; 81 points would have done the job had the campaign concluded.
In the following campaign, Peterborough managed to land the elusive second place with 87 points. However, 81 would have been enough to secure promotion. 2021/22 was Rotherham again, with a total of 90, and 2022/23 was Ipswich Town, with 97 points required to secure promotion.
Pompey fans need to scrub over last season quickly. League One was blessed with three special teams in Ipswich, Sheffield Wednesday and Plymouth. For three teams to amass over 95 points is unheard of and extremely unlikely to happen over the next couple of months.
Over the past five seasons, the average points tally of second place in League One is 87.6. Essentially, 88 points is, more often than not, the magic number. Taking Ipswich’s freak season out of the equation, 86 points could prove enough.
How many wins are required?
It’s hard to predict how the league table will unfold, but three teams in the high 90s is improbable. Therefore, the threshold for automatic promotion should be lower this time around.
Portsmouth currently sit on 73 points, 15 shy of the magic 88. Based purely on averages, Mousinho’s side require five wins from their remaining 11 fixtures. However, just to be safe, six wins would put the Blues in an excellent position to return to the Championship.
Six home games and five away fixtures remain. Tough-looking tests are to come, with Blackpool, Peterborough and Bolton on the horizon.
And until the away trips to Bloomfield Road and Posh are complete, Pompey fans are well within their rights to remain pessimistic over their promotion chances.