Portsmouth are now nine points clear at the top of League One after their 1-0 win over Peterborough United on Saturday.
The Blues’ tally of 83 points is just five less than their best return since returning to the third tier, with seven games remaining for John Mousinho’s side.
There has been heartbreak in the past, but there can be no denying this is Pompey’s best chance of returning to the second tier during their seven-year stint in the EFL’s middle child.
Before the fixtures against Blackpool and Peterborough, there were clear suggestions that Pompey’s run-in was the hardest. Statistically, that is the case. However, what the stats don’t account for is Mousinho’s side’s form and the Blues’ record against the division’s best.
Against the current top six, Portsmouth have amassed 17 points from seven matches, which is over 2.4 points a game. Kusini Yengi’s form has caught the eye in recent weeks, but the entire squad has stepped up since the home defeat to Leyton Orient.
The bottom line is that Mousinho has built a winning machine that is now tantalisingly close to the Championship.
To the dismay of many, Pompey’s chances of promotion have been calculated using Opta’s impressive supercomputer.
Portsmouth promotion chances revealed after Peterborough United win
Per Opta analyst’s supercomputer, the Blues’ probability of automatic promotion increased by 14.7 per cent to 93.4 after 10,000 simulations.
Elsewhere, Derby County’s chances of promotion increased by 21.3 per cent after their win over Bolton Wanderers. The Rams now have a 73.3 per cent chance of landing an automatic spot.
As for Bolton Wanderers, their hopes took a significant dent on Saturday, with Opta giving Ian Evatt’s side a 15.9 per cent chance of going up automatically. According to the computer, Peterborough’s top two hopes also faded, with Darren Ferguson’s side now given a 13.1 per cent shot.
Of course, it would be foolish not to mention the title race.
After Saturday’s results, Opta gives Pompey a 72.8 per cent chance of winning the League One title at the end of the season. Derby has a 22.6 per cent shot, and Bolton has just 2.2.
It’s hard to admit, but the numbers are in Pompey’s favour heading into the season’s final seven games.